The takeaway
PIMCO Commodity Strategy Active Exchange-Traded Fund shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in September (+1.2%) and softest in November (−0.2%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 30% of years, averaging +0.2%, roughly 1.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
PIMCO Commodity Strategy Active Exchange-Traded Fund's most dependable month has been September, higher in 5 of 10 years; November has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+1.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in May (−3.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is PIMCO Commodity Strategy Active Exchange-Traded Fund’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating PIMCO Commodity Strategy Active Exchange-Traded Fund’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, September has closed higher 40% of the time versus 50% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The calendar barely registers for this fund. Even its firmest month, September, has risen in only 5 of 10 Septembers — nothing recurs reliably enough to lean on.
Its roughest month on record was a −34.0% May in 2023 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The honest read is that the calendar is close to noise here — better treated as background than a reason to act.
Short answers on the fund's best month (September), its worst (November), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — September is the firmest (+1.2%) and November the softest (−0.2%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
September has been the strongest, averaging +1.2% and closing higher in 5 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade