The takeaway
Cerence Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 7 years of data — strongest in December (+9.5%) and softest in September (−10.8%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 33% of years, averaging +0.2%, roughly 1.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Cerence Inc's most dependable month has been December, higher in 6 of 7 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 14% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2019 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+27.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−11.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Cerence Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Cerence Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, December has closed higher 80% of the time versus 86% across the last 7 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) December return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 7(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 7-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — December. It has closed higher in 6 of 7 Decembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
A typical December brings +6.7%, a shade under the +9.5% average. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even December ranges by 16.0% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — December has outpaced the S&P 500 by +8.5 points on average. Few peers keep such company in December — the typical stock clears it just 58% of the time.
December anchors a run, too: the November-through-January window has been the stock's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−10.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, February, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −63.0% May in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, December's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
For a stock this dependable in December, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 7-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (December), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2019 its best month (December, +9.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −10.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
December has been the strongest, averaging +9.5% and closing higher in 6 of 7 years since 2019.
It's the weakest, averaging −10.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade