The takeaway
Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Bull 2X Shares shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in January (+9.9%) and softest in October (−10.0%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 44% of years, averaging −3.0%, roughly 5.1 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Bull 2X Shares's most dependable month has been January, higher in 7 of 9 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2016 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+10.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−11.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Bull 2X Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Bull 2X Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 80% of the time versus 78% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: January, up in 7 of 9 Januaries while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+9.9%) and median (+15.3%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even January ranges by 16.9% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: January has cleared the S&P 500 by +10.1 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages January only about 53% of the time.
No other month comes close to matching it — the rest of the calendar is unremarkable by comparison. The weaker half of the year is plainer: October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−10.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, March, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −47.6% July in 2021 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, January's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: January aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (January), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (January, +9.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −10.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +9.9% and closing higher in 7 of 9 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −10.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade