The takeaway
CoreCivic Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in April (+4.4%) and softest in February (−1.7%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 40% of years, averaging −2.3%, roughly 4.5 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
CoreCivic Inc's most dependable month has been April, higher in 6 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+15.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in August (−4.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is CoreCivic Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating CoreCivic Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, April has closed higher 40% of the time versus 60% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
There's a real but measured seasonal tilt here, toward April — the firmest corner of the calendar, higher in 6 of 10 Aprils.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+4.4%) and median (+5.8%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even April ranges by 11.3% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — April has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.8 points on average.
Only August comes anywhere near it for reliability. At the other end of the calendar, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−1.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in August, July, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −51.0% August in 2016 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, April's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise.
Short answers on the stock's best month (April), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (April, +4.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −1.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +4.4% and closing higher in 6 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade