The takeaway
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in December (+1.5%) and softest in June (−1.9%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 60% of years, averaging −0.2%, roughly 2.3 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund's most dependable month has been December, higher in 7 of 10 years; June has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | ||||||||||||
| 2017 | ||||||||||||
| 2016 |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in July (−2.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Invesco DB Agriculture Fund’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Invesco DB Agriculture Fund’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, December has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) December return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. December stands out, higher in 7 of 10 Decembers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+1.5%) and median (+1.5%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 2.4% spread). Set against the S&P 500, mind, December is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages December only about 58% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, March, and April have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, June has been the soft spot — the only month to average an outright loss (−1.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in July, June, and November.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Decembers run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: December aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (December), its worst (June), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (December, +1.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (June, −1.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
December has been the strongest, averaging +1.5% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade