The takeaway
Invesco DB Base Metals Fund shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in September (+1.4%) and softest in March (−1.0%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 60% of years, averaging +1.2%, roughly 0.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Invesco DB Base Metals Fund's most dependable month has been September, higher in 7 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 50% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | ||||||||||||
| 2017 | ||||||||||||
| 2016 |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Invesco DB Base Metals Fund’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Invesco DB Base Metals Fund’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, September has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and September is the anchor — it has closed higher in 7 of 10 Septembers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+1.4%) and median (+2.5%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: September's returns vary by just 3.8% year to year. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — September has outpaced the S&P 500 by +1.5 points on average. It is the more striking for the company it keeps — September is a losing month for most of the market, where barely 39% of names gain ground.
September anchors a run, too: the September-through-November window has been the fund's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−1.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, May, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −14.3% June in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Septembers run ahead of the earlier years.
For a fund this dependable in September, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the fund's best month (September), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — September is the firmest (+1.4%) and March the softest (−1.0%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
September has been the strongest, averaging +1.4% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade