The takeaway
Dropbox Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in March (+2.7%) and softest in February (−8.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 63% of years, averaging −0.8%, roughly 2.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Dropbox Inc's most dependable month has been March, higher in 6 of 8 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 14% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2018 | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+5.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in February (−7.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Dropbox Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Dropbox Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, March has closed higher 100% of the time versus 75% across the last 8 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — March. It has closed higher in 6 of 8 Marches, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+2.7%) and median (+2.8%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — March has outpaced the S&P 500 by +1.7 points on average. Few peers keep such company in March — the typical stock clears it just 56% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, June, and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−8.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in February, July, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −25.8% February in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
March has now closed higher 5 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Marches run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in March, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (March), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2018 its best month (March, +2.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −8.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +2.7% and closing higher in 6 of 8 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −8.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade