The takeaway
ProShares Ultra Dow30 shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+8.6%) and softest in February (−2.2%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 90% of years, averaging +5.1%, about +2.9 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
ProShares Ultra Dow30's most dependable month has been November, higher in 9 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 50% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+6.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is ProShares Ultra Dow30’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ProShares Ultra Dow30’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. November stands out, higher in 9 of 10 Novembers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+8.6%) and median (+9.8%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even November ranges by 8.2% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +6.3 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages November only about 62% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: April, May, and June have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−2.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, February, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −38.2% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Novembers run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +8.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −2.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +8.6% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade