The takeaway
Dimensional Emerging Core Equity Market ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 6 years of data — strongest in May (+1.7%) and softest in October (−1.5%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 80% of years, averaging +0.3%, roughly 1.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Dimensional Emerging Core Equity Market ETF's most dependable month has been May, higher in 4 of 5 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−2.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Dimensional Emerging Core Equity Market ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Dimensional Emerging Core Equity Market ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 6 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — May. It has closed higher in 4 of 5 Mays, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+1.7%) and median (+2.1%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: May's returns vary by just 2.0% year to year, and even its worst May in 6 years lost only 1.3% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — May has outpaced the S&P 500 by +0.9 points on average. Few peers keep such company in May — the typical stock clears it just 55% of the time.
May anchors a run, too: the May-through-August window has been the fund's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, October, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −10.4% September in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a fund this dependable in May, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 6-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (May), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2020 its best month (May, +1.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −1.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +1.7% and closing higher in 4 of 5 years since 2020.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade