The takeaway
ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in June (−0.6%) and softest in October (−0.1%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 60% of years, averaging +1.0%, roughly 1.1 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas's most dependable month has been June, higher in 7 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+5.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−3.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, June has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and June is the anchor — it has closed higher in 7 of 10 Junes, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (−0.6%) and median (+1.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even June ranges by 12.8% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Few peers keep such company in June — the typical stock clears it just 52% of the time.
June anchors a run, too: the May-through-July window has been the fund's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: October is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in December, March, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −67.9% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Junes run ahead of the earlier years.
For a fund this dependable in June, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (June), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — June is the firmest (−0.6%) and October the softest (−0.1%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
June has been the strongest, averaging −0.6% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade