The takeaway
HF Sinclair Corp shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in August (+4.2%) and softest in February (−3.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +3.5%, about +1.4 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
HF Sinclair Corp's most dependable month has been August, higher in 7 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+3.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−3.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is HF Sinclair Corp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating HF Sinclair Corp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, August has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and August is the anchor — it has closed higher in 7 of 10 Augusts, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+4.2%) and median (+6.1%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even August ranges by 10.0% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — August has outpaced the S&P 500 by +3.9 points on average. Few peers keep such company in August — the typical stock clears it just 52% of the time.
August anchors a run, too: the July-through-September window has been the stock's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−3.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in December, February, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −28.0% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Augusts run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in August, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (August), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (August, +4.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −3.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
August has been the strongest, averaging +4.2% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade