The takeaway
Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in July (+18.7%) and softest in March (−12.5%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +18.7%, about +16.6 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings's most dependable month has been July, higher in 4 of 5 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+16.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in February (−17.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: July, up in 4 of 5 Julys while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+18.7%) and median (+17.6%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 13.4% spread), and even its worst July in 5 years lost only 0.9% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +16.6 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: June and September have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 9 months that average a loss (−12.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in February, November, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −54.8% August in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 5-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (July, +18.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −12.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +18.7% and closing higher in 4 of 5 years since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −12.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade