The takeaway
Dow Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 7 years of data — strongest in November (+3.9%) and softest in September (−2.0%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 57% of years, averaging −1.4%, roughly 3.5 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Dow Inc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 5 of 7 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 29% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+3.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in June (−3.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is Dow Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Dow Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 60% of the time versus 71% across the last 7 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 7(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 7-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — November. It has closed higher in 5 of 7 Novembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+3.9%) and median (+4.2%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +1.6 points on average. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — November rises for about 62% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
No other month comes close to matching it — the rest of the calendar is unremarkable by comparison. On the other side of the ledger, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−2.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in June, July, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −29.4% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, November's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
For a stock this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 7-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2019 its best month (November, +3.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −2.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +3.9% and closing higher in 5 of 7 years since 2019.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade