The takeaway
Duolingo Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in September (+16.3%) and softest in August (+0.7%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 40% of years, averaging −3.2%, roughly 5.3 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Duolingo Inc's most dependable month has been September, higher in 5 of 5 years; August has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+16.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−6.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Duolingo Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Duolingo Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, September has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — September. It has closed higher in all 5 Septembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
A typical September brings +11.4%, a shade under the +16.3% average. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even September ranges by 11.9% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — September has outpaced the S&P 500 by +16.5 points on average. It is the more striking for the company it keeps — September is a losing month for most of the market, where barely 39% of names gain ground.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — March and December have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, August is the year's low point, though even there the stock has stayed positive on average (+0.7%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, November, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −37.0% November in 2021 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
September has now closed higher 5 years running.
For a stock this dependable in September, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (September), its worst (August), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (September, +16.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (August, +0.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +16.3% and closing higher in all 5 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+0.7%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade