The takeaway
The 2023 ETF Series Trust shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 2 years of data — strongest in January (+5.5%) and softest in April (−2.5%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 50% of years, averaging −0.9%, roughly 3.1 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
The 2023 ETF Series Trust's most dependable month has been January, higher in 1 of 1 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+5.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−4.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is The 2023 ETF Series Trust’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating The 2023 ETF Series Trust’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent January history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 1 years versus the last 2(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 2-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. January stands out, higher in all 1 Januaries, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+5.5%) and median (+5.5%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 0.0% spread), and even its worst January in 2 years lost only 5.5% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: January has cleared the S&P 500 by +5.7 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages January only about 53% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: May, June, and August have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−2.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, July, and March.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: January aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 2-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (January), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2024 its best month (January, +5.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −2.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +5.5% and closing higher in its one year on record since 2024.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade