The takeaway
Pacer Emerging Markets Cash Cows 100 ETF shows a slight seasonal lean over 7 years of data — strongest in March (−1.8%) and softest in October (−1.4%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 43% of years, averaging +1.1%, roughly 1.1 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Pacer Emerging Markets Cash Cows 100 ETF's most dependable month has been March, higher in 5 of 6 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 29% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2019 | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in December (+1.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is Pacer Emerging Markets Cash Cows 100 ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Pacer Emerging Markets Cash Cows 100 ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, March has closed higher 100% of the time versus 83% across the last 7 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 7(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 7-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — March. It has closed higher in 5 of 6 Marches, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (−1.8%) and median (+1.3%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few peers keep such company in March — the typical stock clears it just 56% of the time.
March anchors a run, too: the March-through-May window has been the fund's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−1.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, October, and February.
March has now closed higher 5 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Marches run ahead of the earlier years.
For a fund this dependable in March, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 7-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (March), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — March is the firmest (−1.8%) and October the softest (−1.4%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
March has been the strongest, averaging −1.8% and closing higher in 5 of 6 years since 2019.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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