The takeaway
New Oriental Education & Technology shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in April (+6.6%) and softest in June (+5.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 60% of years, averaging −1.3%, roughly 3.5 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
New Oriental Education & Technology's most dependable month has been April, higher in 9 of 10 years; June has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in June (+4.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−5.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is New Oriental Education & Technology’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating New Oriental Education & Technology’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, April has closed higher 80% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and April is the anchor — it has closed higher in 9 of 10 Aprils, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+6.6%) and median (+5.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: April's returns vary by just 8.5% year to year. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — April has outpaced the S&P 500 by +4.9 points on average. Few peers keep such company in April — the typical stock clears it just 55% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — February, July, and August have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, June is the year's low point, though even there the stock has stayed positive on average (+5.2%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, May, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −72.2% July in 2021 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
At its steadiest, April strung together 8 straight positive years. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in April, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (April), its worst (June), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The stock's months are fairly even — April is the firmest (+6.6%) and June the softest (+5.2%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
April has been the strongest, averaging +6.6% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+5.2%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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