The takeaway
Elanco Animal Health shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in November (+3.7%) and softest in September (−3.4%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 43% of years, averaging +2.3% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Elanco Animal Health's most dependable month has been November, higher in 5 of 8 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+7.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−9.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Elanco Animal Health’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Elanco Animal Health’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 60% of the time versus 63% across the last 8 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a feast-or-famine calendar. November reads as the strong month, higher in 5 of 8 Novembers, but the tale is one of a few outsized years more than steady gains.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+3.7%) runs well ahead of the median (+1.5%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even November ranges by 13.5% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +1.4 points on average. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — November rises for about 62% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
November anchors a run, too: the October-through-December window has been the stock's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−3.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −22.9% August in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
Hold it loosely, then: the November tendency is genuine but lumpy, more about the occasional outsized year than a gain to bank on. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2018 its best month (November, +3.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −3.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +3.7% and closing higher in 5 of 8 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade