The takeaway
ELF Beauty Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in June (+8.6%) and softest in January (−6.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 44% of years, averaging −0.9%, roughly 3.1 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
ELF Beauty Inc's most dependable month has been June, higher in 7 of 9 years; January has been its least reliable, up just 22% of the time.
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| 2016 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+12.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in January (−6.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is ELF Beauty Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ELF Beauty Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, June has closed higher 80% of the time versus 78% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: June, up in 7 of 9 Junes while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+8.6%) and median (+7.5%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even June ranges by 12.9% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: June has cleared the S&P 500 by +8.3 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages June only about 52% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: May, August, and November have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: January has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−6.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in January, September, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −40.4% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: June aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (June), its worst (January), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (June, +8.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (January, −6.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
June has been the strongest, averaging +8.6% and closing higher in 7 of 9 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade