The takeaway
Embraer S.A. shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in December (+8.2%) and softest in April (−3.8%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 40% of years, averaging −1.0%, roughly 3.2 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Embraer S.A.'s most dependable month has been December, higher in 6 of 10 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in December (+7.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−5.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Embraer S.A.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Embraer S.A.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, December has closed higher 60% of the time versus 60% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) December return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a feast-or-famine calendar. December reads as the strong month, higher in 6 of 10 Decembers, but the tale is one of a few outsized years more than steady gains.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+8.2%) runs well ahead of the median (+3.3%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even December ranges by 13.0% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — December has outpaced the S&P 500 by +7.2 points on average.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, June, and October have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−3.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, September, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −51.9% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
Hold it loosely, then: the December tendency is genuine but lumpy, more about the occasional outsized year than a gain to bank on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (December), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (December, +8.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −3.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
December has been the strongest, averaging +8.2% and closing higher in 6 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade