The takeaway
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China shows a slight seasonal lean over 9 years of data — strongest in March (−1.9%) and softest in February (−3.1%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 56% of years, averaging +1.9% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China's most dependable month has been March, higher in 7 of 8 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 13% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, March has closed higher 100% of the time versus 88% across the last 9 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. March stands out, higher in 7 of 8 Marches, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (−1.9%) and median (+0.9%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages March only about 56% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — March–June forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. The weaker half of the year is plainer: February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−3.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, February, and October.
March has now closed higher 5 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Marches run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: March aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (March), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — March is the firmest (−1.9%) and February the softest (−3.1%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
March has been the strongest, averaging −1.9% and closing higher in 7 of 8 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade