The takeaway
Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in June (+0.4%) and softest in October (−0.7%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 70% of years, averaging +1.8% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF's most dependable month has been June, higher in 8 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 50% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+3.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, June has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: June, up in 8 of 10 Junes while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+0.4%) and median (+2.2%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Set against the S&P 500, mind, June is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages June only about 52% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — May–September forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−0.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, October, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −43.4% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: June aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (June), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — June is the firmest (+0.4%) and October the softest (−0.7%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
June has been the strongest, averaging +0.4% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade