The takeaway
iShares MSCI Pacific ex Japan ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+2.7%) and softest in October (−1.4%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 70% of years, averaging +2.3% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
iShares MSCI Pacific ex Japan ETF's most dependable month has been November, higher in 7 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−2.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is iShares MSCI Pacific ex Japan ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating iShares MSCI Pacific ex Japan ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 60% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: November, up in 7 of 10 Novembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +2.7% average sits well above the +1.1% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Novembers. Set against the S&P 500, mind, November is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — November rises for about 62% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
A few other months pull their weight: February, April, and May have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, March, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −20.0% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +2.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −1.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +2.7% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade