The takeaway
Axa Equitable Holdings Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in August (+3.2%) and softest in September (−3.9%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 75% of years, averaging +4.2%, about +2.0 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Axa Equitable Holdings Inc's most dependable month has been August, higher in 7 of 8 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+5.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−6.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Axa Equitable Holdings Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Axa Equitable Holdings Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, August has closed higher 100% of the time versus 88% across the last 8 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — August. It has closed higher in 7 of 8 Augusts, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+3.2%) and median (+2.2%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: August's returns vary by just 2.9% year to year, and even its worst August in 8 years lost only 0.9% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — August has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.8 points on average. Few peers keep such company in August — the typical stock clears it just 52% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, May, and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−3.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −33.4% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
August has now closed higher 6 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Augusts run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in August, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (August), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2018 its best month (August, +3.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −3.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
August has been the strongest, averaging +3.2% and closing higher in 7 of 8 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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