The takeaway
Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in April (−6.0%) and softest in June (−1.5%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 40% of years, averaging −1.8%, roughly 3.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares's most dependable month has been April, higher in 7 of 10 years; June has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+4.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−9.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, April has closed higher 100% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — April. It has closed higher in 7 of 10 Aprils, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (−6.0%) and median (+3.1%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even April ranges by 22.5% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Few peers keep such company in April — the typical stock clears it just 55% of the time.
Only October comes anywhere near it for reliability. On the other side of the ledger, June has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−1.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, April, and July.
April has now closed higher 5 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Aprils run ahead of the earlier years.
For a fund this dependable in April, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (April), its worst (June), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — April is the firmest (−6.0%) and June the softest (−1.5%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
April has been the strongest, averaging −6.0% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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