The takeaway
ESAB Corp shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in January (+8.3%) and softest in April (−3.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 75% of years, averaging +4.0%, about +1.9 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
ESAB Corp's most dependable month has been January, higher in 3 of 3 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+8.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−4.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is ESAB Corp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ESAB Corp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, January has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: January, up in all 3 Januaries while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +8.3% average sits well above the +4.7% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Januaries. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: January has cleared the S&P 500 by +8.5 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages January only about 53% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: February, May, and July have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−3.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, September, and August. Its roughest month on record was a −16.9% September in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: January aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 4-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (January), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2022 its best month (January, +8.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −3.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +8.3% and closing higher in all 3 years on record since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade