The takeaway
Elastic NV shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in January (+7.6%) and softest in March (−12.6%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 71% of years, averaging +6.3%, about +4.1 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Elastic NV's most dependable month has been January, higher in 5 of 7 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 29% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+7.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−13.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Elastic NV’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Elastic NV’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 80% of the time versus 71% across the last 8 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: January, up in 5 of 7 Januaries while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+7.6%) and median (+9.9%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even January ranges by 14.7% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: January has cleared the S&P 500 by +7.7 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages January only about 53% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: April, June, and July have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−12.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, December, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −28.9% August in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: January aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 8-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (January), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2018 its best month (January, +7.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −12.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +7.6% and closing higher in 5 of 7 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −12.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade