The takeaway
ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in February (+1.9%) and softest in July (−1.6%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 20% of years, averaging −1.6%, roughly 3.8 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets's most dependable month has been February, higher in 6 of 10 years; July has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+2.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in July (−3.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, February has closed higher 60% of the time versus 60% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The year leans February's way without overwhelming the rest of it: the fund has closed higher in 6 of 10 Februaries, its most dependable month if not a dominant one.
Its average (+1.9%) and median (+1.2%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 3.7% spread), and even its worst February in 10 years lost only 2.7% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: February has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.2 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: February lifts just 49% of stocks across the market.
Only November comes anywhere near it for reliability. At the other end of the calendar, July has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−1.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in July, November, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −12.2% November in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise.
Short answers on the fund's best month (February), its worst (July), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (February, +1.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (July, −1.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
February has been the strongest, averaging +1.9% and closing higher in 6 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade