The takeaway
Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in September (+4.6%) and softest in November (−14.4%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 20% of years, averaging −8.2%, roughly 10.4 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares's most dependable month has been September, higher in 7 of 10 years; November has been its least reliable, up just 10% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+4.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−16.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, September has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: September, up in 7 of 10 Septembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
A typical September brings +3.3%, a shade under the +4.6% average. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 10.2% spread), and even its worst September in 10 years lost only 9.3% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: September has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.8 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: September lifts just 39% of stocks across the market.
Only March comes anywhere near it for reliability. The weaker half of the year is plainer: November has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−14.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, July, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −46.8% April in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
A long streak recently broke — September had risen 5 years straight before a −1.9% reading in 2025. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Septembers run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: September aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (September), its worst (November), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (September, +4.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (November, −14.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +4.6% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −14.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade