The takeaway
First Trust China AlphaDEX® Fund shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in February (+1.4%) and softest in October (−4.0%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 60% of years, averaging +1.0%, roughly 1.2 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
First Trust China AlphaDEX® Fund's most dependable month has been February, higher in 7 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+1.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−5.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is First Trust China AlphaDEX® Fund’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating First Trust China AlphaDEX® Fund’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, February has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and February is the anchor — it has closed higher in 7 of 10 Februaries, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+1.4%) and median (+3.2%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — February has outpaced the S&P 500 by +1.7 points on average. It is the more striking for the company it keeps — February is a losing month for most of the market, where barely 49% of names gain ground.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — April, May, and June have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. The weaker half of the year is plainer: October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−4.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, March, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −15.7% October in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Februaries run ahead of the earlier years.
For a fund this dependable in February, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the fund's best month (February), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (February, +1.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −4.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
February has been the strongest, averaging +1.4% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade