The takeaway
Fidelity® High Dividend ETF shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+2.6%) and softest in October (+0.4%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 100% of years, averaging +2.6% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Fidelity® High Dividend ETF's most dependable month has been July, higher in 9 of 9 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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| 2016 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Fidelity® High Dividend ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Fidelity® High Dividend ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and July is the anchor — it has closed higher in all 9 Julys, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+2.6%) and median (+2.1%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: July's returns vary by just 1.8% year to year, and even its worst July in 10 years lost only 0.2% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Set against the S&P 500, mind, July is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
July anchors a run, too: the April-through-July window has been the fund's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: October is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −23.3% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
July has now closed higher 9 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a fund this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — July is the firmest (+2.6%) and October the softest (+0.4%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
July has been the strongest, averaging +2.6% and closing higher in all 9 years on record since 2016.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+0.4%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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