The takeaway
Fidelity® International High Dividend ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in April (+2.1%) and softest in February (−1.1%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 50% of years, averaging +0.6%, roughly 1.5 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Fidelity® International High Dividend ETF's most dependable month has been April, higher in 6 of 8 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 38% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Fidelity® International High Dividend ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Fidelity® International High Dividend ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, April has closed higher 60% of the time versus 75% across the last 8 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — April. It has closed higher in 6 of 8 Aprils, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+2.1%) and median (+2.1%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Set against the S&P 500, mind, April is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. Few peers keep such company in April — the typical stock clears it just 55% of the time.
April anchors a run, too: the March-through-May window has been the fund's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, October, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −21.7% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, April's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
For a fund this dependable in April, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (April), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2018 its best month (April, +2.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −1.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +2.1% and closing higher in 6 of 8 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade