The takeaway
Fidelity® International Value Factor ETF shows a slight seasonal lean over 8 years of data — strongest in April (+1.8%) and softest in February (−1.0%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 63% of years, averaging +1.2%, roughly 0.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Fidelity® International Value Factor ETF's most dependable month has been April, higher in 6 of 8 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 50% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Fidelity® International Value Factor ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Fidelity® International Value Factor ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, April has closed higher 60% of the time versus 75% across the last 8 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — April. It has closed higher in 6 of 8 Aprils, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+1.8%) and median (+1.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Set against the S&P 500, mind, April is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. Few peers keep such company in April — the typical stock clears it just 55% of the time.
April anchors a run, too: the March-through-May window has been the fund's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, October, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −17.1% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, April's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
For a fund this dependable in April, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (April), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — April is the firmest (+1.8%) and February the softest (−1.0%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
April has been the strongest, averaging +1.8% and closing higher in 6 of 8 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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