The takeaway
Franklin FTSE Canada ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in November (+3.9%) and softest in February (−0.9%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 63% of years, averaging +2.1% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Franklin FTSE Canada ETF's most dependable month has been November, higher in 7 of 9 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 50% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+3.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Franklin FTSE Canada ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Franklin FTSE Canada ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 78% across the last 9 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — November. It has closed higher in 7 of 9 Novembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+3.9%) and median (+4.0%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +1.5 points on average. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — March, April, and May have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−0.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, October, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −23.4% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Novembers run ahead of the earlier years.
For a fund this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2017 its best month (November, +3.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −0.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +3.9% and closing higher in 7 of 9 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade