The takeaway
Franklin FTSE China ETF shows a slight seasonal lean over 9 years of data — strongest in May (−0.6%) and softest in September (+0.1%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 50% of years, averaging −0.8%, roughly 2.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Franklin FTSE China ETF's most dependable month has been May, higher in 6 of 8 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+3.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−4.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Franklin FTSE China ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Franklin FTSE China ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 80% of the time versus 75% across the last 9 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: May, up in 6 of 8 Mays while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (−0.6%) and median (+2.0%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages May only about 55% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, March, and June have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, September is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, March, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −16.3% October in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: May aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (May), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — May is the firmest (−0.6%) and September the softest (+0.1%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
May has been the strongest, averaging −0.6% and closing higher in 6 of 8 years since 2017.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+0.1%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade