The takeaway
Flagstar Financial Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in July (+4.1%) and softest in October (−4.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 78% of years, averaging +4.1%, about +1.9 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Flagstar Financial Inc's most dependable month has been July, higher in 7 of 9 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 11% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+1.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−5.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Flagstar Financial Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Flagstar Financial Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 78% across the last 9 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. July stands out, higher in 7 of 9 Julys, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+4.1%) and median (+4.1%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.9 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: March, May, and November have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−4.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, March, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −18.6% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
A long streak recently broke — July had risen 6 years straight before a −0.3% reading in 2025. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2017 its best month (July, +4.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −4.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +4.1% and closing higher in 7 of 9 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade