The takeaway
Franklin FTSE Japan Hedged ETF shows a slight seasonal lean over 9 years of data — strongest in November (+1.9%) and softest in February (−0.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 50% of years, averaging +0.6%, roughly 1.6 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Franklin FTSE Japan Hedged ETF's most dependable month has been November, higher in 8 of 9 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 50% of the time.
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| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+2.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−1.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is Franklin FTSE Japan Hedged ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Franklin FTSE Japan Hedged ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 89% across the last 9 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and November is the anchor — it has closed higher in 8 of 9 Novembers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+1.9%) and median (+1.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Set against the S&P 500, mind, November is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
November anchors a run, too: the August-through-November window has been the fund's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−0.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in December, July, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −10.9% October in 2018 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a fund this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — November is the firmest (+1.9%) and February the softest (−0.8%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
November has been the strongest, averaging +1.9% and closing higher in 8 of 9 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade