The takeaway
Franklin FTSE Japan ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in November (+2.8%) and softest in October (−1.5%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 50% of years, averaging +1.5%, roughly 0.6 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Franklin FTSE Japan ETF's most dependable month has been November, higher in 7 of 9 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 38% of the time.
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| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−2.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Franklin FTSE Japan ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Franklin FTSE Japan ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 60% of the time versus 78% across the last 9 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and November is the anchor — it has closed higher in 7 of 9 Novembers, the steadiest beat on its year.
A typical November brings +1.7%, a shade under the +2.8% average. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +0.5 points on average. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
November anchors a run, too: the November-through-January window has been the fund's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−1.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, April, and March.
The pattern has softened of late, November's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
For a fund this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2017 its best month (November, +2.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −1.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +2.8% and closing higher in 7 of 9 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade