The takeaway
First Trust Managed Futures Strategy Fund shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in August (+1.0%) and softest in October (−0.4%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 40% of years, averaging 0.0%, roughly 2.2 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
First Trust Managed Futures Strategy Fund's most dependable month has been August, higher in 7 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | ||||||||||||
| 2017 | ||||||||||||
| 2016 |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+0.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−2.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is First Trust Managed Futures Strategy Fund’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating First Trust Managed Futures Strategy Fund’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, August has closed higher 40% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. August stands out, higher in 7 of 10 Augusts, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+1.0%) and median (+1.1%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: August has cleared the S&P 500 by +0.7 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages August only about 52% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: March, April, and June have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, October is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, July, and October.
The pattern has softened of late, August's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: August aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (August), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — August is the firmest (+1.0%) and October the softest (−0.4%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
August has been the strongest, averaging +1.0% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade