The takeaway
Frontdoor Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in May (+8.4%) and softest in February (−6.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 57% of years, averaging +4.6%, about +2.5 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Frontdoor Inc's most dependable month has been May, higher in 6 of 7 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 29% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+7.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in February (−5.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is Frontdoor Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Frontdoor Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 80% of the time versus 86% across the last 8 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — May. It has closed higher in 6 of 7 Mays, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+8.4%) and median (+13.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even May ranges by 13.9% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — May has outpaced the S&P 500 by +7.7 points on average. Few peers keep such company in May — the typical stock clears it just 55% of the time.
Only December comes anywhere near it for reliability. The weaker half of the year is plainer: February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−6.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in February, November, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −34.8% November in 2018 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in May, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (May), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2018 its best month (May, +8.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −6.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +8.4% and closing higher in 6 of 7 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade