The takeaway
Forward Air Corporation shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+9.9%) and softest in February (−5.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +9.9%, about +7.7 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Forward Air Corporation's most dependable month has been July, higher in 8 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+7.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in February (−5.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Forward Air Corporation’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Forward Air Corporation’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: July, up in 8 of 10 Julys while the other eleven tend to blur together.
A typical July brings +7.0%, a shade under the +9.9% average. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 10.7% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +7.7 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — June–August forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−5.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in February, April, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −40.0% August in 2023 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Julys run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (July, +9.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −5.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +9.9% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −5.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade