The takeaway
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in January (+6.0%) and softest in September (−10.5%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 75% of years, averaging +3.9%, about +1.8 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc's most dependable month has been January, higher in 3 of 4 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+6.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in September (−10.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is First Watch Restaurant Group Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating First Watch Restaurant Group Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, January has closed higher 75% of the time versus 75% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — January. It has closed higher in 3 of 4 Januaries, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+6.0%) and median (+10.5%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even January ranges by 11.7% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — January has outpaced the S&P 500 by +6.2 points on average. Few peers keep such company in January — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — April, July, and August have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−10.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in September, December, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −21.2% May in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a stock this dependable in January, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (January), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (January, +6.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −10.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +6.0% and closing higher in 3 of 4 years since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −10.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade