The takeaway
Invesco CurrencyShares® Australian Dollar Trust shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+0.7%) and softest in October (−0.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 60% of years, averaging +0.7%, roughly 1.5 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Invesco CurrencyShares® Australian Dollar Trust's most dependable month has been July, higher in 6 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | ||||||||||||
| 2017 | ||||||||||||
| 2016 |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+0.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−2.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Invesco CurrencyShares® Australian Dollar Trust’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Invesco CurrencyShares® Australian Dollar Trust’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 40% of the time versus 60% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The year leans July's way without overwhelming the rest of it: the fund has closed higher in 6 of 10 Julys, its most dependable month if not a dominant one.
Its average (+0.7%) and median (+1.1%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 2.3% spread), and even its worst July in 10 years lost only 2.3% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — July rises for about 61% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
A few other months pull their weight: June and December have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−0.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, April, and October.
The pattern has softened of late, July's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — July is the firmest (+0.7%) and October the softest (−0.8%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
July has been the strongest, averaging +0.7% and closing higher in 6 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade