The takeaway
iShares China Large-Cap ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in January (+2.5%) and softest in April (−0.7%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 60% of years, averaging −0.2%, roughly 2.4 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
iShares China Large-Cap ETF's most dependable month has been January, higher in 7 of 10 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−3.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is iShares China Large-Cap ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating iShares China Large-Cap ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: January, up in 7 of 10 Januaries while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+2.5%) and median (+5.5%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: January has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.7 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages January only about 53% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: May, June, and July have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−0.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, July, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −19.3% October in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Januaries run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: January aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (January), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (January, +2.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −0.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +2.5% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade