The takeaway
Golub Capital BDC Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+2.3%) and softest in June (−1.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +2.3% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Golub Capital BDC Inc's most dependable month has been July, higher in 8 of 10 years; June has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−2.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Golub Capital BDC Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Golub Capital BDC Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and July is the anchor — it has closed higher in 8 of 10 Julys, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+2.3%) and median (+2.4%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: July's returns vary by just 2.2% year to year, and even its worst July in 10 years lost only 2.2% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Set against the S&P 500, mind, July is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
July anchors a run, too: the July-through-November window has been the stock's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, June has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−1.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, March, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −25.1% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (June), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (July, +2.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (June, −1.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +2.3% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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