The takeaway
Global Business Travel Group Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in August (+13.0%) and softest in February (−3.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 75% of years, averaging +5.1%, about +3.0 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Global Business Travel Group Inc's most dependable month has been August, higher in 3 of 4 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+12.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−8.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Global Business Travel Group Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Global Business Travel Group Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, August has closed higher 75% of the time versus 75% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — August. It has closed higher in 3 of 4 Augusts, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
A typical August brings +8.9%, a shade under the +13.0% average. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even August ranges by 14.6% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — August has outpaced the S&P 500 by +12.7 points on average. Few peers keep such company in August — the typical stock clears it just 52% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — May, July, and November have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−3.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −28.0% September in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a stock this dependable in August, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 4-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (August), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2022 its best month (August, +13.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −3.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
August has been the strongest, averaging +13.0% and closing higher in 3 of 4 years since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade