The takeaway
GCM Grosvenor Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 7 years of data — strongest in January (+3.2%) and softest in March (−1.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 71% of years, averaging +4.0%, about +1.9 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
GCM Grosvenor Inc's most dependable month has been January, higher in 5 of 6 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 29% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2025 | ||||||||||||
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| 2019 | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in December (+3.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−3.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is GCM Grosvenor Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating GCM Grosvenor Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 80% of the time versus 83% across the last 7 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 7(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 7-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — January. It has closed higher in 5 of 6 Januaries, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+3.2%) and median (+3.5%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even January ranges by 9.2% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — January has outpaced the S&P 500 by +3.4 points on average. Few peers keep such company in January — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — May, July, and September have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, June, and November. Its roughest month on record was a −14.3% April in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Januaries run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in January, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 7-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (January), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2019 its best month (January, +3.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −1.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +3.2% and closing higher in 5 of 6 years since 2019.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade