The takeaway
Green Dot Corporation shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in June (+5.9%) and softest in September (−3.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +2.1% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Green Dot Corporation's most dependable month has been June, higher in 8 of 10 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in June (+5.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−5.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Green Dot Corporation’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Green Dot Corporation’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, June has closed higher 60% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — June. It has closed higher in 8 of 10 Junes, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+5.9%) runs well ahead of the median (+3.6%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even June ranges by 10.4% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — June has outpaced the S&P 500 by +5.7 points on average. Few peers keep such company in June — the typical stock clears it just 52% of the time.
June anchors a run, too: the May-through-July window has been the stock's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−3.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in November, October, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −38.3% August in 2019 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, June's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
For a stock this dependable in June, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (June), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (June, +5.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −3.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
June has been the strongest, averaging +5.9% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade