The takeaway
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc shows a slight seasonal lean over 6 years of data — strongest in July (+3.2%) and softest in September (+0.4%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 83% of years, averaging +3.2%, about +1.1 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc's most dependable month has been July, higher in 5 of 6 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2020 | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+7.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−2.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 83% across the last 6 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: July, up in 5 of 6 Julys while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+3.2%) and median (+4.2%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 8.1% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.1 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, February, and March have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, September is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, June, and August. Its roughest month on record was a −16.3% June in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, July's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 6-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The stock's months are fairly even — July is the firmest (+3.2%) and September the softest (+0.4%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
July has been the strongest, averaging +3.2% and closing higher in 5 of 6 years since 2020.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+0.4%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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