The takeaway
SPDR Gold MiniShares shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in December (+2.2%) and softest in June (−0.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 63% of years, averaging +2.2% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
SPDR Gold MiniShares's most dependable month has been December, higher in 6 of 8 years; June has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in March (+1.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−2.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is SPDR Gold MiniShares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating SPDR Gold MiniShares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, December has closed higher 60% of the time versus 75% across the last 8 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) December return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and December is the anchor — it has closed higher in 6 of 8 Decembers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+2.2%) and median (+2.3%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: December's returns vary by just 1.9% year to year, and even its worst December in 8 years lost only 0.5% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — December has outpaced the S&P 500 by +1.2 points on average. Few peers keep such company in December — the typical stock clears it just 58% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — April, May, and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. The weaker half of the year is plainer: June has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−0.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, June, and February.
The pattern has softened of late, December's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
For a fund this dependable in December, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (December), its worst (June), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2018 its best month (December, +2.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (June, −0.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
December has been the strongest, averaging +2.2% and closing higher in 6 of 8 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade